A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
